Patti Engineering Insight

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first four innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

The fourth inning featured a 12-6 record despite the Tigers outscoring their opponents by only one run. The Tigers were helped tremendously by an 8-2 records in one and two run games. The Tigers must be concerned about getting under 98 innings from their starters. Only two innings in 2008 and one inning in 2007 featured less innings pitched by the starters. Even though the bullpen factored in all the wins (6 saves, and 6 wins) overuse of the pen will hurt the Tigers come mid August.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first three innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

The third inning of 2009 featured a 9-9 record and a return to the dead ball era. In the 3 years I have been doing this analysis, 67 runs is a low by the Tigers for any one inning. On a positive note, 65 runs allowed is also a low! The Tigers are getting excellent starting pitching as 114.1 innings is also a high water mark for the last 3 years.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first two innings of 2009:

                                                                              Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

The second inning of 2009 featured an identical 10-8 record to the first inning. They have now matched the number of winning innings from last year. What may be even more encouraging is the consistent performance of the team for the first two innings. There have been some bullpen issues and beyond the first three starters, there are lots of questions. But as we stand on this off Monday, the Tigers are in first place in the AL Central on a pace to win 90 games. Based on the weakness of the division, winning 90 games should ensure the playoff baseball in Motown.

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first inning of 2009 to the first inning from the last 3 years.

                                                                              Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

2009: 10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2008:  6-12 74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2007: 10-8  86 -79     17- 9-235/313/380    5-2-110.2-3.66    5-6-8-4.68

2006: 11-7  89 -69     30- 5-281/332/496   10-7-107.2-4.01    1-0-5-3.10

The start of the 2009 season was much better than 2008 and compares favorably with 2007 and 2006. The team scored 102 runs (more than they did in 8 innings last year) and 12 steals was the most since 2007. The pitching has been improved over 2008 and Rick Knapp is having a positive effect with his “throw strikes philosophy.” The team is ranked 3rd in the league in issuing walks (after ranking 13th in 2008).

One interesting thing about this team is that they have the second oldest hitters in the league (avg age 30.5, behind the Yankees 30.7), but have the second youngest pitching staff (avg age 26.7, behind Oakland at 26.4). The season is young and there are still question marks surrounding this team including shortstop, starting pitching, and a recent history of late season collapses. In the last three seasons:

• 2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division.  
• 2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish. 
• 2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Ed Nicholson Jr. (John T. Greilick / The Detroit News)

Shortly before the 1965 baseball season, “Fast” Eddy Nicholson used a connection to get a job as an usher for the Tigers. His first day on the job was opening day, April 21, 1965. The Tigers defeated the Kansas City A’s 1-0 behind the stellar pitching of Hank Aguirre.

Since 1996, Eddy’s affiliation with the Tigers has not been limited to Comerica Park. When Eddy retired from his full time job at Grand Trunk Railway, he and his wife started wintering in Florida and Eddy started working the third base gate at Joker Marchant Stadium during the Tiger’s spring training.

He has many fond memories of his 45 years with the Tigers including 2 All Star Games (1971 and 2005), 2 World Championships (1968 and 1984) and the improbable 2006 Pennant.  His favorite and most emotional memory came on September 27, 1999 when the Tigers said good bye to Tiger Stadium, their home since 1912. Eddy revealed that he could not hold back the tears when the former players took the field during the post game tribute.

I have had the pleasure of sitting in Fast Eddy’s section 132 for the past eight seasons. One particularly hot day, a young girl near us suffered a heat stroke. Eddy went into action and handle the situation flawlessly.

I am sure that his wife, five sons, and fourteen grand children are quite proud of Eddy’s class service to the Tigers. Eddy will regrettably become the Sr. Usher for the Tiger’s this year, as his friend and fellow usher, Dennis Kilpatrick, passed away in February. When you come to Comerica Park this summer, stop by and say hi to Eddy.

Jeff Barker, a Columnist for the Baltimore Sun, has declared war on Gary Williams, the head coach at the University of MD. Barker has been releasing a series of negative columns on Williams and has turned many of the local sports fans against Williams, including my Dad. I completely disagree with Barker.

Maryland hit a real dark period in on June 19, 1986 when Len Bias died of a drug overdose one day after being drafted by the Boston Celtics as the second overall pick. Lefty Driesell, their long tenured coach, who was great recruiter, but had limited success in the NCAA tournament, was forced to resign as a result of the Bias death.

Bob Wade, a successful African American high school coach at Dunbar was hired next. He was the first African American coach in ACC history. Unfortunately, in his 3 years the team was 36-50 and there were numerous NCAA rules violations.

Gary Williams, an already successful coach at Ohio State and a former MD player, took over a program that had faced many NCAA sanctions, lost its once proud legacy, and would have trouble recruiting African Americans out of Baltimore, as a result of Wade.

Williams struggled for six years at Maryland, but hit a turning point in 1994 when, Keith Booth, a Baltimore area African American chose Maryland. Williams built a powerhouse that would make the NCAA tournament 11 straight years and win the school’s only NCAA Championship in 2002. They were the first NCAA champions in many years that had no McDonald’s High School All Americans.

The 2004-2005 season saw a downward turning point. John Gilchrist, a highly talented junior, who had almost singlehandedly won the ACC tournament as a sophomore feuded with Williams down the stretch of the season as MD faded to 19-13 and missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1993. MD has made only one NCAA tournament since.

This past off season was particularly difficult as a two highly touted transfers, Gus Gilchrist, and Tyree Evans, both left before ever playing a game for MD. This has left a very young, undersized, scrappy team that so far has still managed to go 15-8 and 4-5 in ACC.

Williams has prided himself on running a clean program. Two of his assistant coaches are Keith Booth and Chuck Driesell, who is the son of Lefty. Both the recruits that left in the off season speak very highly of Williams. He has done things the right way for the last 20 years and I have enjoyed telling my Michigan Friends that they should “Fear the Turtle.”

Now it appears that the School Administration and the local fans may just be dumb enough to let a sports columnist lead the charge to sweep Williams out of town. If that happens, It will be very dissapointing and a sad ending to a great 20 year run for MD Basketball.

Today we are going to inaugurate our 44th US President. For the first time in history, our president is going to be of African American Descent. Now matter your political views, this is a historic day. Our European Brethren, who often times look down on America as being racist, have no room to talk. How many Black Prime Ministers has the UK had, how many Black Presidents in France, could you imagine a Black Chancellor in Germany?

I am not going to state how I voted, but I will proudly state that I voted for candidates from three different parties in my federal selections. I think too often we are programmed to vote based on the letter behind the candidates’ last name, rather than how the candidates’ views match yours and just as importantly the candidates’ character and integrity.

I was having dinner with a good friend of mine, Jason, early last fall. Jason is an African American from Kentucky and is very well educated, multilingual, and has traveled all over the world. He has experienced isolated incidents of racism in his past.

He and I disagreed on whether America would actually elect a black president. He claimed that many Americans may say that they would elect a black person when polled, but when they got into the polling booth would not cast that vote. I disagreed, and said that Barack Obama would be elected if more Americans thought he would be a better president than John McCain.

I called Jason the day after the election to say “I told you so.” Jason revealed to me that he had cried the night before. That phone call was one of my proudest moments as an American.

A great man passed from the earth on a dreary Tuesday Morning. Donald Eugene (Ducky) Fridline was a tremendous family man. Marrying his baby daughter, Patti, I consider myself very lucky to know Ducky the past 20 years.

Ducky was born on the East Side of Flint in 1929 and raised in a tiny house on Maryland Avenue. One of 10 Children, they stayed very close throughout their lives, all settling in the Flint Area. One brother, Herb, was killed in a Motorcycle accident at age 18. The other five brothers all served in the US military, Ducky spending his time as a Navy Corpsman. Now that Ducky has passed, only two of the ten children are still alive. 

Ducky returned from the Navy in 1952 and married Jeanie. He got a job at Buick City and she at AC. They bought a house on the East Side of Flint in 1955 having two small boys at the time. They ended up having eight children in all. They worked different shifts so that they could handle the day care and raised all of the kids in the house which was not bigger than 1000 square feet.

An Avid Hunter, Ducky bought a large parcel near Manton, MI in 1970. Nicknamed “Bugatussle,” it became Ducky’s favorite place in the world. The small cabin that was built shortly after the purchase grew with many additions to a place were over 20 could sleep comfortably.  Hunting, exploring, riding ATV’s and enjoying the 80 acres became a passion for Ducky, his friends, and family.

Ducky faced several challenges in his life, and approached them all with vigor. He did not graduate high school in his youth, but went to adult education to get his diploma well after his 50th birthday.  A smoker for years, he had his last cigarette in 1987 when a major stroke came close to killing him. The stroke left him permanently disabled as he lost use of his right hand and would drag his right extremities for the rest of his life. In 1990 Ducky would battle and survive Prostate Cancer.

In 2001, the love of his life, Jeanie, passed away after a long illness. I and most of those close to Ducky, thought there was no way that he would be able to live on his own. He proved us all wrong, taking care of himself and doing tasks that he hadn’t done since his stroke. He was determined that he would not need assisted living, and he didn’t.

After having worsening back pain, Ducky was diagnosed with bone cancer in late June. After battling for a while, he entered the wonderful Avalon Hospice facility on September 23rd. Ducky told his children not to feel sorry for him, he had a great life and everyone was going to die at some point.  

Ducky, you did live a great life, and your legacy will live on for a long time. You made those closest to you better with the example you set. You will be missed.

 �

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for each innings in 2008:

      Starters:         Bullpen:

    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61

3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83

4:  11-7  85 -74     19- 8-268/350/416    8-4-113.0-3.27    3-3-5-5.17

5:  12-6  86 -78     25- 6-297/347/476    6-4-106.1-4.23    6-2-6-3.43

6:  9-9   118-96     25- 8-299/368/483    8-6-105.0-5.49    1-3-2-4.03

7:  7-11  93- 103    26- 8-265/353/455    7-7-104.0-4.67    0-4-4-4.92

8:  8-10  91- 118    27- 8-263/335/475    4-8- 92.2-6.90    4-2-5-4.68

9:  4-14  87- 114    23- 7-245/330/410    3-7- 99.1-5.98    1-7-3-7.11

In the 9^th was an abomination. Four wins was the worst inning the team has had since the 7^th inning if 2003 (2-16). Three of the four wins came in the last weekend of the season against a Rays team that was busy celebrating their first ever division championship. The end of the season left a bad aftertaste in everyone’s mouth.

Leyland has now managed the Tigers for three years. The teams combined records in those three years (broken up by thirds):

Innings 1-3 (beginning third of seasons): 89-73

Innings 4-6 (middle third of seasons): 99-63

Innings 7-9 (last third of seasons): 69-93

The question for 2009 is not if the team will fade at the end of the year, but when the team will start fading. Let’s look at each of the 3 years:

2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7^th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division.

2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23^rd. They get swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish.

2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23^rd. They are within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Onto the Analysis of the 9^th Inning:

Starting Pitching: Miner continued to pitch well. Freddy Garcia did well in his showcase for 2009. Galarraga was hurt by seven homeruns. Verlander finished a really bad campaign with a thud. Robertson and Willis were horrible and Kenny Rogers is probably done.

Bullpen: I love slurpees from 7-11, but a team ERA of 7.11 from the Bullpen is an absolute joke. Lopez, much like Miner, put up decent numbers this year but gets no respect in terms of a future job.

The offense had some bright spots. Dusty Ryan hit well and proved that he can hit major league pitching. Miguel Cabrera continued to hit. Hats off to 29-year old Mike Hessman, who has now surpassed 300 career homeruns (288 in the Minors and 13 in the Majors). Curtis Granderson slumped terribly. Brandon Inge continued to not hit and almost ended up below .200, but inexplicably was told he is the starting 3B for 2009?

The 2008 Tigers were one of the most disappointing teams in Detroit Sports History. Expected to compete for a World Championship, they instead finished last place and looked totally listless in the last six weeks of the season.

Will they bounce back for 2009? I have a tendency to think so. In my opinion, I still have a lot of faith in Dave Dombrowski and think the organization will rebound. I must say though that Jim Leyland may be one of the most overrated managers in the history of baseball (.494 career winning percentage).

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for the first 8 innings in 2008:

                                                            Starters:     Bullpen: 

    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28

2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61

3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83

4:  11-7  85 -74     19- 8-268/350/416    8-4-113.0-3.27    3-3-5-5.17

5:  12-6  86 -78     25- 6-297/347/476    6-4-106.1-4.23    6-2-6-3.43

6:  9-9   118-96     25- 8-299/368/483    8-6-105.0-5.49    1-3-2-4.03

7:  7-11  93- 103    26- 8-265/353/455    7-7-104.0-4.67    0-4-4-4.92

8:  8-10  91- 118    27- 8-263/335/475    4-8- 92.2-6.90    4-2-5-4.68

In the 8^th inning ended with a three game winning streak, otherwise it would have been really ugly. The pitching has completely fallen apart. They gave up seven or more runs in 50% of the games in the inning. The team is playing out the string and it is clear that most of the team cannot wait until September 28^th comes. Looking back at all the expectations that this team had in March, it is hard to believe how bad this team is.

The starting pitching was abysmal. Galarraga was the only pitcher with an ERA under 5.00 (and he barely made it). Miner has come back down to earth after some very good starts and the great mystery of Verlander’s 2008 struggles continue. Kenny Roger’s career looks over and Nate Robertson gave up 5 homeruns in his only start!

In the Bullpen, Kyle Farnsworth was terrific. The 2 Tampa reject (Glover and Fossum) also pitched well. Francis Beltran pitched 2.2 scoreless innings. No one else had a WHIP below 1.64. Do not be fooled by Rodney’s 5 saves, He gave up 7 walks and 10 hits in 8 innings!

The offense scored over 5 runs/game. Cabrera, Ordonez, and Granderson are leading the pace. Can anyone give a good reason why Sheffield is continuing to garner his regular playing time? If he gets to 500 homeruns (he needs 4 more) is he going to retire? If that is the case, bat him leadoff so he can get his milestone and save the Tigers 14m next year. Displaying from best to worst: