Sat 26 Dec 2009

The Tale of Two Cities part 1

Posted by shoff under Culture , Detroit , Michigan
[2] Comments 

Having now spent the majority of my life in the Midwest, I can say that I am proud to be associated with the region. People in the Midwest have grit. They are not narcissistic and their family is the most important thing in their life. Two cities that display the Midwestern persona are Chicago and Detroit.

Separated by only 4 hours across I-94, the cities are worlds apart. According to www.city-data.com, using 2007 statistics, Chicago has an average income of $45,505 while Detroit is $28,097. Chicago has an average home price of $286,800 while Detroit is $100,351. 33.8% of Detroit lives in poverty compared to 20.5% for Chicago.  The murder rate per 100,000 in Detroit has averaged 41 over the last 10 years, more than twice the rate in Chicago (19).

With this post and my next one I am going to compare Detroit and Chicago, two cities that at one time were similar, but have since grown very much apart. I am going to highlight some of the problems I see with the City of Detroit and the Southeastern Michigan as a whole. I am going to break up my analysis into two posts, because I have many opinions on the subject.  I will apologize now if I offend anyone, please understand that these are only my personal opinions.

Let’s explore the population of each city. Today Chicago has a population of 2,853,000 people (density of 12,569/sq-mi), and Detroit has a population of 912,000 (density of 6,378/sq-mi). Each city reached their peak population in 1950 before the birth of suburbs. Since 1950, Chicago has lost 21% of its population while Detroit has lost a staggering 51%.

Historical Population Density 

 

Population DensityAs you can see from the chart above between 1950-1990 Detroit and Chicago experienced similar population loses, but since 1990 Chicago has actually added resident since 1990 (+2%), while Detroit has continued in a death spiral(-11%). The death spiral will not turn around anytime soon as new construction single family permits over the last 12 years have averaged 175 per year in Detroit and 1,000 in Chicago.

 

It’s NOT Jobs within the City?

From 1990 – 2000 Chicago workers LOST close to 70,000 jobs within the city while Detroit workers lost a lower percentage and only 15,000 jobs. Yet the population of Chicago grew by 2%, while the population of Detroit shrunk by 11%. The reason for this phenomenon is that many more Chicago workers are now commuting from the city to a job in the suburbs.

I am reminded of my niece, Allison, who lives in downtown San Francisco near the baseball stadium, yet works for HP about 45 minutes away in the suburbs. Like many young urban professionals she and her fiance enjoy living in an urban setting, have no kids, and do not have time to worry about the upkeep of a house. They can walk or take a cab to a local restaurant and do not have to worry about the legal consequences of having to return home if they have a couple of adult beverages.

My niece Allison’s story would be rare for Detroit. Very few young professionals live in the city. The people in the suburbs only go to Detroit to see a ball game, show, or visit a casino. Young professionals, like my niece who has an engineering degree from Michigan State, are leaving this region in droves.

I grew up in the Baltimore-Washington Suburbs and have through my business travelled to most of the major cities in this country. I can tell you I have never been to an area as dysfunctional as Southeastern Michigan. The City of Detroit and the Suburbs surrounding it do nothing but bicker with each other.

There is so much distrust for the suburbs that a suburbanite, Robert  Thompson, who was educated in Detroit, was going to donate $200 million dollars to the Detroit Public Schools was told to get lost because he wanted too much control of how his money was going to get spent. More recently, this region almost lost its last showpiece event, The North American Auto Show,  when the city fought with the suburbs and state over the much needed redevelopment of the Cobo Center.

I know many of my neighbors in the suburbs, would like to forget about the city of Detroit. But, the city is the heart of this area. Like a human being cannot live without a heart, this region cannot survive without a healthy city of Detroit. It takes my suburban neighbors working with the city, not being elitist. 

Most importantly, it will take leadership in the city government that accepts responsibility, creates a safe atmosphere, and encourages immigration. I love this area, and I sincerely hope in my lifetime we can see a renaissance in Detroit. But hope is not a strategy, so in my next post, I am going to offer some ideas I have on the issue.

 

Wed 7 Oct 2009

The 9th Inning is Over

Posted by shoff under Baseball , Culture , Tigers
No Comments 

A full baseball season can be broken into nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. The 9th inning of 2009 provided an extra game as the Tigers and Twins hooked up for an exciting but deflating one game playoff.

Let’s compare the nine innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

8th:  10-8   85-92     19- 7-267/355/425    7-5-101.1-4.88    3-3-6-5.28

9th:   9-10  79-87     16- 3-271/351/390    7-8-109.1-4.45    2-2-5-4.13

 

 

On Sunday September 6 the Tigers completed a sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tigers were 14 games over .500 and had a 7 game lead on the second place Minnesota Twins who were at exactly .500. The Tigers used their whole roster that magical weekend at TB which featured late inning wins in every game. Exactly one month later on the 163rd game of the season the Tigers were knocked out of first place for the first time since May 9th, finishing with an 11-16 mark while the Twins closed 19-8. This pattern of limping to the close has happened in all four seasons that Jim Leyland has managed the Tigers. The 2009 collapse happened later in the season than the previous collapses:

  • 2006: The team had a 76-36 record and a 10-game lead on August 7th, they then went 19-31 the rest of the year and lost the division on the last day of the season to the Twins.  
  • 2007: The Team had a 59-38 record which was the best record in baseball and a 2-game lead on July 23rd. They got swept at Chicago in a double header the next day on route to a 29-36 finish. 
  • 2008: After a horrible start, the team climbs back to a 52-49 record on July 23rd. They were within 5 games of the White Sox. A blown save by Todd Jones against the White Sox starts a 22-39 run to end the season.

Starting Pitching: Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both terrific going down the stretch. Eddie Bonine did as well as can be expected from a 28-yr old career minor leaguer. Edwin Jackson lost three of his 4 starts, his whip wasn’t horrible as he walked only 8 batters, but he gave up 12 extra base hits and was hurt by some big innings. Nate Robertson was very ineffective and the one Figaro start was bad albeit brief.

 

 
Name G IP W L K ERA WHIP
Justin Verlander 4 30    3 1 30 4.20 1.20
Rick Porcello 4 23    1 1 11 2.35 1.39
Eddie Bonine 3 16 2/3 1 1 8 2.70 1.32
Edwin Jackson 4 24    1 3 16 6.75 1.46
Nate Robertson 3 14 1/3 1 1 10 5.65 1.81
Alfredo Figaro 1 1 1/3 0 1 2 13.50 3.75
 

Bullpen: In looking at the numbers, why was Fernando Rodney continuously trotted out? Between the 8th and 9th innings, Rodney pitched in 19 of the teams 37 games logging 19.1 innings in which he gave up 24 hits, 15 walks, and pitched to a 7.45 era. Brandon Lyon was very effective as was Perry. Miner was also very effective in every outing except his last when he was pulled 2 batters too late. Ni pitched great and it would of been nice to see more than 3.1 innings out of him. Figaro had an effective outing in Chicago picking up a win as the Tigers came back from a 5-0 deficit. Bobby Seay was clearly hurt and hopefully will be ready to go next spring. Fein, Rapada, Bonderman, and Galarraga all got in some mop-up duty.

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Brandon Lyon 9 10 2/3 0 1 0 7 2.53 1.31
Ryan Keith Perry 6 7 2/3 0 0 0 9 2.35 1.30
Zach Miner 7 9 2/3 1 0 0 7 1.86 1.45
Fu-Te Ni 7 3 1/3 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.60
Alfredo Figaro 2 4 2/3 1 0 0 2 1.93 1.29
Casey Fien 3 4    0 0 0 3 4.50 1.00
Fernando Rodney 10 11 2/3 0 1 5 2 6.94 1.89
Clay Rapada 1 1    0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00
J Bonderman 3 2 1/3 0 0 0 2 0.00 2.14
A Galarraga 3 3 2/3 0 0 0 3 12.27 2.18
Bobby Seay 5 2 1/3 0 0 0 1 15.43 4.71

 

 

Offense: The offense had their second best inning performances with a 271 BA and a 351 OBP, but the 390 SLG was the second lowest of the year. Magglio Ordonez finished on a tear finishing 10th in the league in batting despite getting benched mid season. Miguel Cabrera was good, though not great in the closing inning. His final weekend was marred by a 0-11 performance and a drunken police call to his home. Hopefully, he will get his personal matters straightened out before the 2010 campaign.

Ryan Raburn completed a nice breakout season, Polanco got on base at over a 400 clip, and Carlos Guillen showed signs that he can be a viable DH option for 2010. All that Ramon Santiago did was play good defense and hit, unlike his counterpart Adam Everett who did not hit a lick coming down the stretch. Curtis Granderson really hampered the top of the lineup by not getting on base enough.

Inge and Laird were in the lineup everyday for their defense and neither one hit a lick. While I can generally agree with starting them for defense, I am perplexed on Leyland’s in game management of those two. On September 18th Detroit lost to Minnesota 3-0. In the 9th inning of the game with two out Avila PH for Inge and walked, after a Granderson double, Huff pinch hit for Laird and popped out to Short Stop to end the game. That was the last time either one of them were pinch hit for? I will forever wonder what Avila would of done against Keppel with 2-out and the bases loaded in the 12th inning of game 163. I am pretty sure he would not have been caught chasing an obvious ball 4 like Laird did.

Marcus Thames’ Tiger days may be over and he went his last 86 ABs without a HR, Clete Thomas has to reduce his high strikeout rate, and Huff’s Tiger career was a disaster. On a brighter note Don Kelly had a memorable 163rd game and as a 29-yr old minor leaguer that will probably be his career highlight.  

Name G AB HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Magglio Ordonez 15 57 2 10 0 .421 .459 .614
Miguel Cabrera 19 76 5 14 1 .276 .353 .513
Ryan Raburn 15 33 4 6 0 .333 .436 .697
Placido Polanco 18 75 0 8 0 .347 .412 .373
Carlos Guillen 15 47 2 8 0 .234 .362 .468
C Granderson 19 83 3 9 0 .253 .287 .422
Ramon Santiago 12 40 0 5 1 .325 .372 .325
Brandon Inge 19 72 0 8 0 .208 .278 .264
Gerald Laird 17 58 0 2 1 .224 .308 .259
Marcus Thames 10 22 0 1 0 .227 .357 .273
Clete Thomas 14 24 0 1 0 .208 .240 .292
Aubrey Huff 15 36 0 2 0 .194 .310 .222
Adam Everett 12 33 0 3 0 .212 .235 .273
Don Kelly 8 6 0 0 0 .333 .429 .333
Alex Avila 6 8 0 0 0 .125 .417 .125
Brent Dlugach 2 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
In my 8th inning evaluation, I stated that if the Tigers went 9-9 over their last 18 games, the Twins would have to go 13-4 to catch them, and amazingly that is exactly what happened despite the Twins missing Morneau. The all important 163rd was played on the road in the hostile Metrodome, and though the Tigers did not play great, they at least played hard and with alot of heart.
It should be a very interesting off season. The Tigers ended 2009 with their opponents outscoring them by 2 runs (743-745). This indication means that even though the Tigers finished 9 games above .500, they played to a level of a .500 club. The Tigers management needs to realize this and make the necessary moves to upgrade the team going into 2010. I cannot envision the same team, without some serious upgrades, competing for a playoff position to the last game of the season next year.
 

Wed 16 Sep 2009

The 8th Inning is Over

Posted by shoff under Baseball , Culture , Tigers
[7] Comments 

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first eight innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

8th:  10-8   85-92     19- 7-267/355/425    7-5-101.1-4.88    3-3-6-5.28

 

 

The 10-8 eighth inning featured a 6-game winning streak immediately followed by a 5-game losing streak. Half of the defeats were to the worst team in the AL, KC, who outscored the Tigers 30-11. Overall, the Tigers were outscored by their opponents by 7 runs; marking the 4th inning in a row they were outscored. The good news is that the Twins were an identical 10-8 during the inning, while the White Sox were 9-9. Therefore the Tigers 4.5 game lead going into the 9th inning is the exact same that it was when the inning started on 8/27.

  

Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching overall had a pedestrian 4.88 era. Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello were both very effective and Edwin Jackson battled to win 2 of his 3 starts. At this point, the 4th starter is a crap shoot. Nate Robertson had two very nice starts, and then on 9/11 gave up 6 hits and 5 walks in 3.2 innings before leaving with a groin injury. Washburn has been horrible while battling a knee injury which may keep him out for the season. Galarraga has elbow problems and pitched like he was pouring gasoline on a fire. The Tigers are so desperate for a 4th starter that Eddie Bonine is starting in the first game of the 9th inning. Bonine is 28 years old with a career 4.52 minor league ERA. He has been hit at the major league level for 341/378/564. A Tigers starter for the upcoming Sunday game in Minnesota has yet to be determined.

 

Name G IP W L K ERA WHIP
Justin Verlander 4 29    2 1 28 3.10 1.14
Rick Porcello 4 24 2/3 3 0 12 3.28 1.01
Edwin Jackson 3 20    2 0 14 5.40 1.45
Nate Robertson 3 13 2/3 0 2 8 1.98 1.61
Jarrod Washburn 3 11 2/3 0 2 5 11.57 2.31
A Galarraga 1 2 1/3 0 0 1 23.14 3.00

 

Bullpen: The bullpen had some very rough outings in the last inning and overall put up a very high ERA (5.28). Brandon Lyon was very effective and Zach Miner pitched well in 6 of his 7 appearances. Ni and Seay gave the Tigers a nice 1-2 lefty combination. Ryan Perry gave up a ton of base runners and looks to be hitting a wall. Fernando Rodney gave up multiple earned runs in 3 of 9 appearances. The Tigers must get Rodney back on track as making Lyon the closer leaves a big hole at setup.

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Brandon Lyon 8 8    0 0 2 7 1.12 0.38
Zach Miner 7 11 1/3 1 1 0 5 3.18 1.32
Fu-Te Ni 9 5    0 0 0 2 3.60 1.40
Eddie Bonine 2 3 2/3 0 0 0 2 2.45 0.82
Bobby Seay 7 5 1/3 2 1 0 5 6.75 1.13
Ryan Keith Perry 7 8 1/3 0 0 0 5 5.40 1.80
F Rodney 9 7 2/3 0 1 4 6 8.22 2.22
Nate Robertson 1  2/3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00
J Bonderman 4 4    0 0 0 2 9.00 2.00
Casey Fien 2 3 1/3 0 0 0 0 10.80 1.80
A Galarraga 1 2 1/3 0 0 0 3 11.57 1.71

 

Offense: The offense had a pretty good performance as their 355 OBP was the best of the year. Carlos Guillen has quietly has been getting on base at a nice clip and his 3 HRs in the inning tied for the team lead. Guillen’s LF platoon partner, Ryan Raburn has also been hot. Magglio Ordonez continues to hit for average and has now had enough plate appearances to kick in his $18m option for 2010, but is not driving in runs (2) and only had 2 extra base hits (both doubles). Polanco tied for the team lead in HRs in the 8th and came up with some nice clutch hits. Speaking of clutch hits, Huff’s 3-run HR in the bottom of the 9th inning on 9/14 will definitely make the season highlight DVD. Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson are both in mini slumps while Brandon Inge is mired in a severe second half slump. Laird is in the game for defensive purposes only, while Avila has really provided a nice stick as the backup catcher. Santiago and Everett continue to perform at career expectations. Clete Thomas is having a nice sophomore season, while Wilkin Ramirez is giving us a brief glimpse why he may be a serious component of the 2010 Tigers.

Name G AB HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Carlos Guillen 13 37 3 8 0 .243 .391 .568
Ryan Raburn 16 35 2 5 0 .343 .385 .571
Magglio Ordonez 16 49 0 2 0 .429 .491 .469
Placido Polanco 17 67 3 9 2 .299 .310 .493
Aubrey Huff 17 46 2 10 0 .239 .286 .478
Alex Avila 11 20 2 5 0 .300 .318 .600
Miguel Cabrera 18 63 2 7 2 .238 .364 .349
Clete Thomas 16 26 0 3 1 .269 .387 .423
Marcus Thames 12 26 0 5 0 .308 .355 .385
Brandon Inge 18 62 3 9 0 .194 .286 .355
C Granderson 18 63 2 5 0 .190 .282 .365
Adam Everett 15 40 0 6 0 .250 .348 .350
Gerald Laird 16 38 0 6 1 .263 .341 .342
Wilkin Ramirez 8 5 0 2 0 .600 .571 1.000
Ramon Santiago 10 28 0 0 0 .250 .300 .286
Don Kelly 4 2 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000
Brent Dlugach 3 2 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Dusty Ryan 1 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000

  

 

 

Despite getting spanked by the mighty Royals, the Tigers held serve in the 8th inning by maintaining a 4.5 game lead on their competition. The Twins, Tigers, and White Sox have 52 combined games left, 32 of which are against each other including the Tigers playing 13 games against their closest pursuers. Minnesota has lost Morneau for the year, and the White Sox have traded valuable pieces away but the race is FAR from over as The Tigers only have 3 starting pitchers left.

In looking at the schedule, the Tigers could get 4 more starts a piece from Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello if needed. If the Tigers can go 9-9 the rest of the way, the Twins would have to go 13-4 or the White Sox 14-3 in order to create a tie. I am hoping that when I write the 9th inning summary, I am talking about the 4th starter for the Yankee Series instead of doing a post mortem on the Tiger’s collapse.

 

Thu 27 Aug 2009

The 7th Inning is Over

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[7] Comments 

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first seven innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

7th:   9-9   74-85     25- 9-250/321/423    5-5-104.0-4.76    4-4-6-4.39

 

 

The seventh inning saw the Tigers finish 9-9. The Tigers started out the inning 1-4 after losing the first 3 games in Boston which included a controversial brawl and the Rick Porcello suspension. The Tigers went a respectable 8-5 after that while outscoring their opponents 54-46. The Tiger’s gained in the Central division race as the Twins (10-8) and the White Sox (7-10) had their own struggles. 

  

Starting Pitching: The Tigers starting pitching was pretty mediocre (4.75 era). Justin Verlander continues to roll up strikeouts (31 in 27.2 innings) and his 2-0 win against Boston on August 13 may be the turning point in the Tigers season. Galarraga was pretty effective in 2 starts then was strangely sent down to Toledo with elbow inflammation. Rick Porcello only pitched 12 innings thanks impart to his 2nd inning ejection at Boston. Washburn was very effective for a guy who gave up 7 HRs in 26 innings. After having no run support all year, Edwin Jackson got 2 wins despite pitching very ineffectively.

 

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Justin Verlander 4 27 2/3 2 2   31 3.90 1.19
A Galarraga 2 11 1/3 0 0   9 3.18 1.32
Rick Porcello 3 12    0 1   10 5.25 1.25
Jarrod Washburn 4 26    1 0   14 4.85 1.23
Edwin Jackson 4 22 1/3 2 1   14 5.24 1.84
Zach Miner 1 4 2/3 0 1   3 9.64 1.93

Bullpen: The bullpen continued to be effective. Eliminating Lambert and Dolsi’s 3 horrendous outings the bullpen posted a 2.78 ERA.  Fernando Rodney continues to pitch well as an unearned run lead to his only loss. Seay, Lyon, Ni, and Perry were all effective as middle relievers. Zach Miner took 33% of the Tiger’s loses in the 7th inning and seems to be best suited for low leverage situations.  

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
F Rodney 7 8 1/3 0 1 6 7 1.08 0.96
Bobby Seay 8 7    2 0 0 6 2.57 1.14
Fu-Te Ni 4 6 2/3 0 0 0 2 4.05 0.90
Brandon Lyon 6 7    2 0 0 7 3.86 1.57
Ryan Perry 8 9    0 0 0 11 3.00 1.56
Zach Miner 5 7 1/3 0 2 0 3 2.45 1.23
Chris Lambert 2 6 2/3 0 1 0 4 14.85 2.70
Freddy Dolsi 1 1 1/3 0 0 0 1 6.75 4.50

 

Offense: The offense continues to perform below expectations. Thank God for Miguel Cabrera who like last year, really seems to be heating up in towards the end of the year. Magglio is showing signs of life as 6 extra base hits and Clete Thomas’ 20 strikeouts in 46 ABs seem to make it apparent that Maggs will get his 18m option (he needs 55 more ABs in the remaining 36 games). Guillen, Granderson, and Polanco all get passing offensive grades for the 7th inning. Ryan Raburn hit well, but is now officially categorized as a butcher at 3B as a 3-error effort against KC on August 16 brought his career fielding percentage to .811 at that position. Avila proved he is human, but you have to love the fact that he coaxed 5 walks in his 30 plate appearances. Ramon Santiago seems to be winning the year long shortstop battle with Everett as he has hit much better and has a slightly better range factor for the season. Brandon Inge is not hitting at all, but pretty much has to be kept in the lineup for his glove. Gerald Laird’s offense continues to disappoint despite his good defense. Thames has been relegated to playing only against lefty starters. The Tigers were rumored to have traded for Aubrey Huff, but it doesn’t seem that he has shown up yet!

Name G AB HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Miguel Cabrera 17 64 5 17 2 .422 .486 .750
Magglio Ordonez 14 41 1 4 0 .390 .490 .634
Carlos Guillen 16 52 4 11 0 .269 .367 .519
C Granderson 17 63 3 5 1 .222 .300 .444
Ryan Raburn 16 28 4 5 2 .357 .400 .821
Alex Avila 10 25 2 4 0 .240 .367 .560
Placido Polanco 18 74 0 4 1 .284 .303 .324
Ramon Santiago 13 31 1 2 0 .290 .353 .387
Marcus Thames 11 35 2 6 0 .200 .237 .400
Adam Everett 12 32 1 3 1 .219 .242 .375
Gerald Laird 11 36 0 1 1 .167 .250 .250
Brandon Inge 17 61 2 6 0 .131 .154 .230
Clete Thomas 16 46 0 3 1 .130 .216 .130
Aubrey Huff 8 24 0 1 0 .083 .154 .083

 

The 7th inning featured 4 games at Boston and a 6 game road trip to the west coast where the Tigers have traditionally struggled. A 9-9 record and increasing the lead in the central are positive signs. The next inning features 12 home games and only seven games against a team with a winning record (all vs. TB). The Tigers need to make hay in the 8th inning to build a cushion going into the last inning which will feature 13 games against Minnesota and Chicago. As pointed out in previous posts, history is not on their side. But with a relatively healthy team, and a favorable schedule, Leyland will have no excuses for not winning the central division.

 

 

Sat 8 Aug 2009

The 6th Inning is Over

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[5] Comments 

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first six innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

6th:  10-8   82-86     16- 7-268/338/412    6-6-113.2-4.75    4-2-5-3.44

 

The sixth inning saw the Tigers finish 10-8 for the 3rd time in 2009. The Tigers were outscored by 4 runs, but helped by a 7-3 record in one and two run games. Interestingly, the Tigers had identical 29-25 records in the first two thirds of the 2009 season, but digging deeper you find that the Tigers outscored their opponents by 33 in the first third, but were outscored by 9 in the second third.

 

The last third of the season is going to be critical for the Tigers and especially Jim Leyland. The Tigers under Leyland (2005 to 2009) have a combined .533 winning percentage in the first 54 games of the seasons. They have a combined .570 winning percentage in the middle third of seasons. In the final third of seasons, they have a combined .407 winning percentage. In fact, their worst performance in every single year has been in the last third. Many people have a lot of respect for Jim Leyland, but he consistently seems to lose his team down the stretch. I sincerely hope 2009 proves to be different.

 

Starting Pitching: In the ten games Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello started the Tigers were 8-2. The two other wins were the game Eddie Bonine was called up from Toledo and gave a respectable performance in the second half of a double header verses the White Sox, and a 10-8 win against the Twins where Galarraga was far from sharp. Washburn was swapped for French to try to reverse this trend, though it didn’t work on the first try. For the season, the Tigers are 40-25 when the big-3 (Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello) pitch. They are 18-25 in all other games.

 

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Justin Verlander 3 24    2 0   25 3.00 1.08
Edwin Jackson 3 19    1 0   16 3.32 1.37
Rick Porcello 4 24    2 1   9 4.88 1.21
A Galarraga 4 25    1 2   14 5.76 1.52
Eddie Bonine 1 6    0 0   4 4.50 1.50
Lucas French 2 10 1/3 0 2   8 6.10 1.74
Jarrod Washburn 1 5 1/3 0 1   2 10.12 1.50

  

Bullpen: The bullpen has continued to improve. The 3.44 bullpen ERA in the inning was a season best performance and came on the heels of the previous season best (3.66). Rodney is still getting the job done, though he creates some anxious moments. Lyon, Perry, and Ni were all sharp. Seay is going through a bit of a slump. Miner is performing mostly in low leverage situations, though he did get a shaky save in 12 inning affair with Cleveland. Fien had a nice debut against the White Sox, but then pitched his way back to Toledo. 

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Brandon Lyon 7 9    1 0 1 11 0.00 0.67
F Rodney 8 9    2 0 3 12 3.00 1.33
Ryan Perry 6 9 1/3 0 0 0 10 2.89 1.07
Fu-Te Ni 8 7    0 0 0 6 2.57 1.00
Zach Miner 6 9    0 0 1 5 4.00 1.67
Bobby Seay 6 5    1 1 0 4 7.20 2.00
Casey Fien 4 4    0 1 0 6 9.00 2.25

 

Offense: The offense performed better in the 6th inning than in the 5th inning. Their 4.56 runs/game is slightly below the 4.84 league average for 2009. They were building momentum through the inning as they scored 52 runs in the last 9 games after scoring 30 runs in the first 9 games of the inning. Granderson, Cabrera, and Thomas were all very effective. Polanco seems to have his old stroke back and Carlos Guillen has been a welcomed addition to the lineup.  Magglio Ordonez was not his old self, but was slightly improved. Brandon Inge has fallen off recently as he has been nursing a sore knee and the shortstop platoon of Santiago and Everett continue to stink offensively. In two games, Alex Avila had as many doubles, one more HR, and only two less RBI than the backup catchers (Treanor, Sardinha, and Ryan) had through the first 106 games.  

Name G AB HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Miguel Cabrera 18 75 4 14 0 .360 .429 .613
C Granderson 17 72 3 8 3 .292 .370 .528
Placido Polanco 17 75 1 10 1 .333 .362 .440
Carlos Guillen 13 51 2 8 0 .294 .368 .471
Clete Thomas 17 46 1 8 0 .283 .389 .391
Magglio Ordonez 13 49 2 6 0 .265 .308 .449
Ryan Raburn 15 42 0 6 1 .262 .311 .333
Alex Avila 2 8 1 5 0 .500 .500 1.125
Brandon Inge 18 59 1 3 0 .237 .318 .322
Ramon Santiago 10 25 0 3 0 .200 .323 .320
Marcus Thames 13 38 1 1 0 .184 .311 .316
Adam Everett 14 39 0 5 1 .179 .190 .205
Gerald Laird 14 42 0 1 1 .167 .222 .238
Dusty Ryan 6 11 0 3 0 .182 .250 .182
Josh Anderson 1 4 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Wilkin Ramirez 1 3 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000

 

After back to back home 2-1 losses to Seattle in games 2 and 3 of the 6th inning, the Tigers stood tied with the White Sox. After that, three straight home wins against the same White Sox built the lead to 3 games which is where it currently stands. The Tigers have picked up a quality fourth starter in Washburn, have a healthy Carlos Guillen, and a couple of veterans in Polanco and Ordonez who seem to be regaining their strokes while having millions of dollars personally riding on a good late season performance. The Tigers seem to be positioned for a good late season run, but only time will tell if they reverse their trend of collapses.

 

 

Mon 20 Jul 2009

The 5th Inning is Over

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[2] Comments 

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first five innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

5th:   7-11  70-76     23- 7-234/307/403    5-7-108.1-3.90    2-4-3-3.66

 

The fifth inning was the first losing inning by the Tigers in 2009. The inning featured an anemic offense that scored only 70 runs. It ruined the first inning in 2009 that both the starting and relief pitching had sub 4.00 eras. The Tigers went 3-7 in one and two run games after going 8-2 in previous inning. Interestingly, assuming the Tigers split those type of games, they would have been 9-9 for each of the innings.

 

The Tigers were 4-8 in road games in the 5th inning. The Tigers are now 21-29 on the road and 27-13 at home. The fact that 42 of the remaining 72 games left are at home is good news in this regard. The Home/Road splits are pretty staggering, especially the offense. The Tigers hitters average 5.6 runs per game at home, but under 4.0 per game on the road. The Tigers pitchers give up less than 4.0 runs per game at home, but 4.8 per game in the road.

 

Starting Pitching: With the all-star break, Verlander and Jackson started half of the 18 games in the 5th inning. They both pitched well, but the team was only 4-5 in those starts, scoring a grand total of 12 runs in the five loses. Galarraga and French also both pitched well. Procello was rocked in two starts before the team decided to give him a 17 days of rest before his next start.

 

 

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Edwin Jackson 4 27 1/3 1 1   22 2.96 1.13
Justin Verlander 5 31 1/3 2 2   37 3.45 1.31
A Galarraga 3 19 1/3 1 1   15 2.79 1.29
Lucas French 3 16    1 0   8 2.25 1.44
Rick Porcello 2 8 1/3 0 2   3 9.72 2.40
Alfredo Figaro 1 6    0 1   5 10.50 2.00

 

 

Bullpen: The bullpen was very good with the exception of two pitchers. Zach Miner was awful in mostly mop-up duty while Joel Zumaya was put on the DL after walking 9 and giving up 10 hits in 6.2 innings. Three times he surrendered the lead late when the Tigers were ahead. At this point, I don’t think the Tigers can count on getting anything from him the rest of the year. Rodney, Ni, Lyon, Seay, and Dolsi had a 1.83 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP combined!

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Bobby Seay 8 6    1 0   6 0.00 0.83
Fu-Te Ni 8 9    0 0   9 2.00 1.00
Freddy Dolsi 5 9 1/3 1 0   2 0.96 1.18
F Rodney 7 8    0 1   7 3.38 1.25
Brandon Lyon 6 7    0 1   5 2.57 1.43
Zach Miner 6 5 2/3 0 0   4 9.53 2.29
Joel Zumaya 7 6 2/3 0 2   5 9.45 2.85
Nate Robertson 1 0    0 0   0 - INF

   

Offense: The offense continues to struggle. Are they swinging for the fences too much? In the first 36 games of the season, the offense averaged 5.58 runs per game using 1.14 HRs/game. In the last 54 games, the offense has averaged 4.11 runs per game, but increased their home runs to 1.22/game. Comparing the same period, the batting average is 20 points lower, and the on base percentage is 25 points lower. Miguel Cabrera, Marcus Thames, Gerald Laird were the only regulars with acceptable 5th inning performances. Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn performed well in limited duty. The shortstop platoon was horrible and Magglio Ordonez would rather forget the first three and half months of 2009.

 

 

Name G AB HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Marcus Thames 17 62 5 11 0 .290 .371 .548
Miguel Cabrera 18 73 3 5 0 .288 .342 .452
Gerald Laird 16 53 1 6 0 .283 .339 .415
Brandon Inge 17 60 4 9 1 .217 .329 .417
Placido Polanco 17 70 3 14 0 .229 .299 .400
C Granderson 18 67 2 2 3 .224 .333 .373
Clete Thomas 6 19 2 7 0 .421 .476 .895
Ryan Raburn 14 38 1 5 0 .263 .300 .474
Josh Anderson 14 27 0 4 2 .185 .267 .296
Adam Everett 14 39 0 0 0 .205 .262 .308
Magglio Ordonez 13 43 1 4 1 .186 .239 .302
Ramon Santiago 9 24 1 2 0 .125 .154 .250
Don Kelly 8 18 0 0 0 .111 .111 .167
Dusty Ryan 3 8 0 0 0 .000 .200 .000
Alfredo Figaro 1 2 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Edwin Jackson 4 2 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Justin Verlander 5 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000

 

The Tigers still maintain a lead in the American League Central as they have since May 9th.  The lead has shunk to less than 2 games over Minnesota and Chicago. Performance against their own division is going to critical as over 50% of the remaining games (38) are within the Division. 14 out of 20 games against Minnesota and Chicago are at Comerica including all seven games scheduled for the last week of the season.  Will the Tigers be able to avoid the late season collapses that they have had under Leyland? Only time will tell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun 28 Jun 2009

The 4th Inning is Over

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[2] Comments 

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first four innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

4th:  12-6   85-84     29- 8-259/335/459    6-5- 97.2-4.98    6-1-6-4.08

 

The fourth inning featured a 12-6 record despite the Tigers outscoring their opponents by only one run. The Tigers were helped tremendously by an 8-2 records in one and two run games. The Tigers must be concerned about getting under 98 innings from their starters. Only two innings in 2008 and one inning in 2007 featured less innings pitched by the starters. Even though the bullpen factored in all the wins (6 saves, and 6 wins) overuse of the pen will hurt the Tigers come mid August.

  

 

Starting Pitching: Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello continue to be very good, though Jackson may want to sue to offense for lack of run support. Galarraga is very shaky as the 4th starter, but shines compared to the trio who attempted to fill the 5th slot. Bonderman is not healthy and will probably not be back until Spring Training 2010. Dontrelle Willis walked 13 batters in 8.2 innings and went back on the DL for anxiety disorder. Figaro pitched around a bunch of runners to get a home win, but it remains to be seen whether he is ready for the show.

 

 

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Justin Verlander 3 20 2/3 2 1   21 3.48 1.21
Edwin Jackson 3 18    0 1   17 3.50 1.44
Rick Porcello 4 22 2/3 2 0   10 3.18 1.59
A Galarraga 4 18 2/3 1 1   9 6.75 1.93
Alfredo Figaro 1 5    1 0   7 3.60 2.00
Dontrelle Willis 2 8 2/3 0 1   4 9.35 2.77
J Bonderman 1 4    0 1   1 13.50 2.75

 

Bullpen: The back end of the bullpen struggled as Zumaya and Rodney combined to walk more than a batter per inning. Zumaya got picked up by the offense as he picked up a couple of wins. Rodney is doing a great Todd Jones impression by letting up all kinds of runners but is now a perfect 16/16 in save opportunities. Lyon, Seay and Miner were all outstanding in middle relief. Perry was sent down to Toledo (again) for some seasoning, while Nate Robertson has been awful. You would have to think the Tigers would of given Robertson a shot at starting of he had shown them anything through the first 45% of the season.

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Brandon Lyon 10 13 1/3 2 0 0 10 0.68 0.60
Bobby Seay 11 7 1/3 0 0 0 6 0.00 0.68
Zach Miner 6 10 2/3 2 0 0 9 0.84 0.84
F Rodney 9 8    0 0 6 8 5.62 1.75
Joel Zumaya 9 7 1/3 2 1 0 9 6.14 2.45
Ryan Keith Perry 4 5 1/3 0 0 0 5 8.44 2.44
Nate Robertson 7 5 1/3 0 0 0 6 15.19 2.63

 

  

Offense: The offense performed better in the 4th inning than the previous anemic 3rd inning. 29 homeruns are the most in an inning in the 2.5 years I have been doing this analysis. Cabrera and Inge continue to be the most consistent hitters on the team. Thames has been thumping since coming off the DL. Granderson is hitting with nice power, but needs to get on base more if he is going to bat leadoff. Polanco had a nice performance in the 4th inning after being way under his career numbers the first third of the season. Kelly and Raburn have provided a nice platoon and Santiago and Everett are doing very well as a SS combination.

Magglio was benched as he has continued to perform way under his career numbers. Gerald Laird has struggled offensively all year and Dusty Ryan was called up to improve on the .068 batting average (NOT a misprint!) of the backup catchers. Clete Thomas was sent to Toledo to work with Hitting Coach Leon “Bull” Durham. Josh Anderson is fast, but appears to have few other major league talents. Porcello’s 2 hits helped the pitchers hit a collective .182.

Name G AB HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG
Miguel Cabrera 18 68 5 8 0 .279 .347 .544
Marcus Thames 18 57 5 10 0 .281 .323 .596
Brandon Inge 18 61 5 14 0 .246 .347 .541
Placido Polanco 16 55 2 6 2 .309 .387 .509
C Granderson 17 67 4 8 3 .239 .329 .463
Don Kelly 11 30 0 3 0 .333 .412 .467
Ryan Raburn 15 36 2 6 1 .250 .372 .472
Ramon Santiago 11 26 2 3 0 .269 .321 .500
Adam Everett 14 44 1 9 0 .273 .353 .364
Gerald Laird 14 46 1 3 0 .217 .280 .370
Magglio Ordonez 11 41 1 3 1 .244 .289 .341
Dusty Ryan 2 6 0 1 0 .333 .429 .500
Josh Anderson 17 26 0 2 1 .231 .231 .231
Clete Thomas 5 11 1 4 0 .182 .182 .545
Dane Sardinha 3 5 0 1 0 .000 .000 .000
Rick Porcello 4 5 0 2 0 .400 .400 .400
Edwin Jackson 3 2 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Dontrelle Willis 2 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Justin Verlander 3 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
Zach Miner 6 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
A Galarraga 4 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000

 

 

The Tigers are a combined 36-18 in the 4th innings of the last three years, so they seem to usually play well this time of the year. How will they perform in August and September? That is the question. They are 23-11 at home and presently hold a 5-game lead in the division. They play 41 out of 75 post all-star games at home, so the schedule is favorable. If Magglio can get straightened out, they can find one more effective starter, and the backend of the bullpen throws strikes, October will be pretty fun at the COPA.

 

Mon 8 Jun 2009

The 3rd Inning is Over

Posted by shoff under Culture , Tigers
[2] Comments 

A full baseball season can be broken into Nine 18-game segments. I have termed these 18-game segments as an “inning” of a season. In the past I have provided analysis of each “inning” at www.detroittigersweblog.com. For 2009, I am going to post the analysis on my own blog www.samhoff.com.

Let’s compare the first three innings of 2009:

                                                                      Starters:         Bullpen:

       W-L  RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L- IP-  ERA     W-L-S-ERA

1st:  10-8  102-84     21-12-276/349/432    7-6-103.1-4.62    3-2-4-3.96

2nd:  10-8   99-86     20- 6-265/342/436    8-5-104.0-3.63    2-3-3-5.68

3rd:   9-9   67-65     14-13-252/317/370    9-8-114.1-3.23    0-1-5-4.23

 

The third inning of 2009 featured a 9-9 record and a return to the dead ball era. In the 3 years I have been doing this analysis, 67 runs is a low by the Tigers for any one inning. On a positive note, 65 runs allowed is also a low! The Tigers are getting excellent starting pitching as 114.1 innings is also a high water mark for the last 3 years.

 

  

Starting Pitching: In the eleven games started by Verlander, Jackson, and Porcello the Tigers record was 8-3, in the seven games started by Galarraga and Willis the Tigers were 1-6. Jeremy Bonderman is scheduled to make his debut today in Chicago and you have to figure that there will be change coming to the rotation. Galarraga’s pitching was passable, so you have to figure the final rotation spot is a battle between Bonderman and Willis.

 

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
Justin Verlander 4 27    3 0   28 1.33 1.04
Edwin Jackson 4 31 1/3 3 1   21 1.72 0.89
Rick Porcello 3 16 1/3 2 1   9 3.31 1.35
A Galarraga 3 19 1/3 0 3   8 4.66 1.34
Dontrelle Willis 4 20 1/3 1 3   13 6.64 1.52

 

 

Bullpen: The Bullpen got little work as the starters for the most part went pretty deep into games. I think Leyland has managed the work load pretty well as every reliever had between four and eight innings pitched. Rodney is still a perfect 10/10 in save opportunities. Zumaya and Perry have pitched well although both can be prone to control problems. Bobby Seay was the least used reliever (4 innings) as he was used mainly as a LOOGY (lefty specialist). Robertson and Lyon both pitched well while being used in low leverage situations. Zack Miner has continued to struggle and may soon find himself in Toledo.

Name G IP W L S K ERA WHIP
F Rodney 8 8    0 1 4 8 2.25 1.38
Joel Zumaya 6 6 2/3 0 0 1 11 4.05